Intrade.com is giving 48% odds that the US will go into a recession in 2008. While it is risky to contradict this site on elections I think the odds are strongly against a recession in 2008.

The incumbent party will generally do anything to avoid creating an economic liability in an election year. Typically, markets perform their best during the last two years of an election cycle.

Expect a record Dow in 2008, likey predicated on a substantial improvement or re-evaluation of the mortgage and housing crisis.

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