Jul 5, 2015 0
From Townhall, Trump and the Myth of Immigrant Crime by Steve Chapman:
Sampson thinks it is no coincidence that crime rates nationwide have plunged over the past two decades just as immigrants, authorized and unauthorized, were arriving in record numbers.
In the first place, these newcomers are generally less prone to break the law than native Americans. Most Mexicans who undertake the risks and sacrifices required to come here want to work at honest jobs and provide for their families, not rape and kill. Mexicans who want to rape and kill, after all, can find plenty of suitable targets without leaving home.
In the second place, the influx of foreigners, particularly from Mexico, has helped revive many blighted communities. They have generated economic activity and filled vacant buildings, both of which tend to curb crime. What’s true of Chicago, Sampson notes, is also true of New York and Los Angeles, where crime has subsided fastest in the neighborhoods with the highest immigrant concentrations.
Trump regards the backlash as a product of spineless pandering to groups that vigorously suppress any information they find inconvenient. But he has only managed to prove something his own admirers strive to forget: Just because a statement is politically incorrect doesn’t mean it’s true.
The greatest and most common abuse in political debate is the misuse of anecdotes to draw false political conclusions. The media is a sucker for this when it fits their narrative and reactionary when it does not. The correlation between crime and immigration is as weak as the correlation between financial and political success.
Trump damages the Republican cause just by being in the race. He is the face and the tone the opposition will put on the entire GOP field, and it will hurt whoever the nominee is. Bombastic statements are dangerous tools for a world leader. Business leaders with dictatorial powers in their business organizations are often ill prepared for the compromises requires to lead a political and participatory democracy. Like any profession, politics requires experience, a history of nurtured relationships, and an understanding of the nuances required to move an agenda forward.
Inexperienced populist candidates, bragging about being an outsider, can be ineffective at best and dangerous demagogues at worst.
By contrast Carly Fiorina also has no experience in elected office, although she did have a real campaign (unsuccessful) against Barbara Boxer. Unlike Trump she has shown grace on the campaign trail, and she has sought forums commonly unfriendly to conservative candidates. Grace and fearlessness trumps arrogance and recklessness.