Malcolm Gladwell’s “Outliers” seeks to explain the causes of extreme success beyond mere talent and merit.

He notices that a largely disproportionate number of professional hockey players have birthdays in January, February, and March as opposed to disproportionately few with birthdays in the later calendar quarter.

The reason is that hockey development leagues start as young as 5 years old. With a January 1 age cutoff a young player born on January 2 will have a much higher level of physical maturity than a player born December 2. The younger player will be more likely to be stronger and faster.

He will stand out sooner and get better coaching and attention and will be called on to play more hours. This extra attention will follow him through his career to the pros.

With such an understanding the leagues may want to have age cutoffs every six months rather than every 12.

The point of this thinking is that success, while still dependent on merit and ability is also a function of opportunity and conditions.

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