As we learn more about Ms. Palin it becomes interesting to figure out how she will affect this campaign.

I start with the simplistic notion that a third of the voters will vote Democrat no matter what, a third will vote Republican and a third are the independents who really impact this election and most elections.

The Republican brand is pretty tarnished right now and there be more loyal Democrats than Republicans, and the middle third may be a bit more in play than normal.

She clearly had a significant impact in coalescing the Republican faithful who had felt distant from the McCain nomination. But the real question is what kind of influence she will have on the independent middle third.

While certainly a strong, independent, and accomplished woman, she is probably too conservative for the core Democrats. She is a strong Pro Lifer and her relationship with an evangelical church will not woo very many Hillary supporters, certainly not the women.

Palin’s stand on abortion is absolute heresy to the feminine left and they will scortch her like a traitor. Her other accomplishments will count for nothing to them.

But will her pro life stand alienate the independents? My guess is that it will, but will it out weigh the reluctance they have with Obama? Reverend Wright and Obama’s associates are still a liability. He is still rated the most liberal senator in Congress, and in most elections that would hurt his chances. This one may be different.

The pro Choice crowd has raised the fear of a return to back alley abortions for every Republican candidate since Nixon, but the courts including many judges appointed by Republicans, have continued to enforce the precedence of Roe Vs Wade. If McCain and Palin occupy the White House they will face a strongly Democratic House and Senate that will scrutinize any Supreme Court appointment on this major divisive issue. The chance of any change in the status of Roe VS Wade is small.

If Palin hedges her personal choice of anti abortion with a statement to recognize the legitimacy of Roe Vs Wade, she will alienate the strong Christian right support she has just ignited. If she stands firmly apposed to abortion rights, even in the case of rape, she risks alienating the independents that McCain so desperately needs.

It is about to get very interesting.

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