Perhaps the best explanation of why the Intrade betting spread does not completely confirm the McCain lead in the polls is because the betting people may be more focused on the electoral votes than the popular votes of the polls.

I may seem to be too focused on Intrade. Intrade will be much less accurate as a long term oracle than it would be as a short term prediction. The short term bets may come from some with insider knowledge.

Regardless, the spread has reduced sharply as McCain has risen in the polls. The timing of this reversal has been seen in previous campaigns.

One has to think that if McCain has jumped ahead after a period of a ridiculous fawning media worship of Obama and incredibly biased coverage, during a time when the Republican brand is as tarnished as it has been since Nixon, and after record fundraising from Obama supporters- then Obama should be worried, very worried.

Early in the campaign the Hillary nomination seemed inevitable. When she stumbled out of the gate after the Iowa primary the media started to pile on. Every gaffe was repeated (sniper fire in Bosnia) and every scowl was amplified. Obama’s gaffes ( and there were many) were largely ignored.

The media descended on Hillary like a pack of starving wolves surrounding a wounded prey. Are they starting to smell blood in the Obama camp?

Expect to see more coverage of Obama’s gaffes. Expect to see the media less likely to give him the benefit of a doubt.

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