In a few days the polls will tell us how much of a kick the Republican GOP convention gives McCain and Palin. I hav ebeen watching the odds on Intrade.

Before McCain’s speech (Ok but not nearly as electric as Palin) Obama had been pretty steady at about 60% odds favorite to McCain’s 40% odds. It oscillated very little over the preceeding weeks even after Obama’s speech. On 9/4/08 the respective odds were 59.5 vs 41.5, a spread of 18. The next morning the odds changed to 56.3% and 44% respectively with a spread of 12.3, a significant change and improvement for McCain overnight.

Later that day the odds spread a little back to 57.8 and 42.2; a 15.6 spread.

Truthfully, I don’t know if this is significant or not. We will know if this trend continues next week. Intrade is certainly not a flawless measure but it is an interesting balance to the polls.

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