The lack of certainty is a common refrain from business people and investors today. But it is not a satisfactory explanation. Business people always face uncertainty. There are always unforeseen problems, new competitors and products, and risks in investments. Without risk and uncertainty, opportunities would be rare and investments would yield very little.

There is even a constant risk of economic changes, inflation, and legal problems. This is nothing new to this administration.

Part of what is different is just the degree and the effect of an accumulation of regulations that has caused our economic sclerosis. Uncertainty such as figuring the costs of the health insurance bill on employment is still an issue. It is killing employment because the expectation is that the cost will be much much higher, in spite of political assurances to the contrary.

But the uncertainty we complain about is not the uncertainty we normally face. Today we no longer know the rules. Once we spend time and money figuring them out they are going to change.

My HR guy asked about going to a seminar to learn the new health insurance rules. I said not to bother until we knew what the rules would be.

We would all enjoy a game of Monopoly and understand the risk of the roll of the dice. But we would also understand the rules. Who would play if a roll of the dice would entitle you to make whatever change in the rules you desired?

We can handle uncertainty. What is much harder is the constant change in the rules. It makes for a game nobody want to play.

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