People most often vote their pocket books and the current risk posture of our economy with rising unemployment and declining earning gives an edge to Obama. Even if the economy is not as bad an much of the press states, if the people see a softening economy they will want a change.

It was Clinton’s focus on the economy that beat George H. Bush after his 90% approval rating immediately after the first Gulf War. Bush II cerainly has never enjoyed such a high approval rating.

The announcement of troops withdrawals from Iraq also gives Obama an edge. His weakness and inexperience on foreign affairs is much less of a liability if the people do not fear terrorism and war. As I have stated before our success in the war on terror gives an edge to Obama because it allows him to focus on the economy.

At this point in the campaign as many voters suffer the fatigue of incessant sniping from hyprocritical and cynical talking heads, the last laps will be decided by how much the candidates can engage the uncommitted emotionally.

Sarah Palin’s contribution to the McCain ticket may be the way she connected with such strong emotions to the mothers, the women, the small towns, and other listeners. Obama is a good speaker but he does not connect as emotionally as Palin.

Whether she is good enough to help McCain overcome the edge the current state of affairs gives Obama remains to be seen. If McCain does not close the gap shortly after the convention, it will be hard to accomplish later.

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