I have found that this British based betting site is a better indicator of political outcomes than many of the major polling organizations. While the population that is willing to place hard money on predicting an outcome should be statistically unsound, it has the benefit of not being influenced by biased editorializing or wishful thinking; just the clarity of a prediction and the commitment of real money. You know what they say about opinions; money talks……

What many call a feeling in their gut is really a culmination of a lot of data and information that is rapidly discerned into a thought or an action. This is the core of Malcom McDowell’s book, Blink. Does the willingness to bet money on that opinion clarify or distort that opinion, making it more or less valuable as a predictive tool? Some one has to be studying this.

While this can change quickly over time, according to Intrade the Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to retain the House and the Senate. Hillary has a solid lead to win the party’s nomination and the White House and Fred Thomson and Guliani are neck and neck. See for yourself at https://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=23030&eventSelect=23030&updateList=true&showExpired=false

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