from The New Yorker, EVERYBODY’S AN EXPERT by Louis Menand Tetlock also found that specialists are not significantly more reliable than non-specialists in guessing what is going to happen in the region they study. Knowing a little might make someone a more
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from The New Yorker, EVERYBODY’S AN EXPERT by Louis Menand It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock’s new book, “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?” (Princeton; $35), that people who make prediction their
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From The Truth Wears Off by Jonah Lehrer in The New Yorker: An excellent article on the publication bias- keep in mind that in order to be peer reviewed it has to be published- although up to a third of
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from The New Yorker, a review on the book America’s Bitter Pill by Steven Brill. The review is by Malcolm Gladwell. excerpt: Goldhill takes a far more radical position than the economic team at the White House does. He believes that most
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from The New Yorker, a review on the book America’s Bitter Pill by Steven Brill. The review is by Malcolm Gladwell. excerpt: On May 2, 2009, Brill writes, the domestic-policy group at the White House blindsided the economic team with
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