Descriptive powers do not naturally unfold into predictive accuracy. Models by their nature must eliminate variables that can be critical. An economy as large and as dynamic as ours is a wonderful and complicated thing and not cooperative to descriptions and predictions according to simple models.
Read More“There are no solutions, only tradeoffs.” Could the tax credits granted to the wealthy for historical renovation serve us better if it was used to provide health care for the poor? Could it be better served invested in a productive enterprise innovating new products, generating economic growth and dividends which will provide additional tax revenue instead of less?
Read More“The long run budget problem has essentially nothing to do with the Trump tax cut. It has been brewing under Bush, Obama, and Trump. It fundamentally comes from growth in entitlements an order of magnitude larger. “
Read More“A key principle here is that the overall marginal tax rate matters. There is a tendency, especially on the left, to quote only the top Federal marginal rate of about 40%, and to say therefore that high income Americans pays less taxes than most of Europe. But that argument forgets we also pay state and sometimes local taxes.”
Read Morefrom John Cochrane
“The larger economic point: In the end, investment in the whole economy has nothing to do with the financial decisions of individual companies. Investment will increase if the marginal, after-tax, return to investment increases. Lowering the corporate tax rate operates on that marginal incentive to new investments. It does not operate by “giving companies cash” which they may use, individually, to buy new forklifts, or to send to investors. Thinking about the cash, and not the marginal incentive, is a central mistake. (It’s a mistake endemic to Keynesian economics, but the case here is supply-side, incentive oriented.)”
The health care debates are particularly contentious because they are a focus of the fundamental philosophical differences in political and economic thinking. While activists insist they are only trying to be pragmatic in providing care for all, they remain hostage…
Read MoreFrom The Grumpy Economist, a review/ commentary by John Cochrane on an essay by Russ Roberts on Economic Humility In sum, I think economics provides an excellent set of bullshit detectors. This is my stock answer about my own professional expertise.…
Read MoreIf a doctor of oncology treats a thousand patients, but five hundred of them die, is he still a good doctor? If a preacher saves a thousand souls but one hundred end up in hell is he still a…
Read MoreFrom John Cochrane at The Grumpy Economist, Clinton Plan: There are no numbers here anywhere. The $275 billion is clearly just a made up number that sounds sort of big but not so big as to attract tax-and-spend criticism. Because…
Read MoreJohn Cochrane- economist at his blop. The Grumpy Economist, Economic Growth. Second, we should separate the tax code from the subsidy and redistribution code.Let us agree, the tax code serves to raise revenue at minimal distortion. All other economic policy…
Read MoreEconomist John Cochrane wrote a 10,000 word essay, Economic Growth. Scott Grannis blogged some excerpts here: a few of them: When we say broaden the base by removing deductions and credits, we should be serious about that. Thus, even the holy trinity of…
Read MoreEconomist John Cochrane wrote a 10,000 word essay, Economic Growth. Scott Grannis blogged some excerpts here: a few of them: The popular debate is about “more” vs. “less” regulation. Regulation is not more or less, regulation is effective or ineffective, smarter or dumber,…
Read MoreFrom John Cochrane at The Grumpy Economist, Economic Growth This is part of a 10,000 word essay that is worth every second of the time it takes to read. The central goal of a growth-oriented tax system is to raise…
Read MoreEconomist John Cochrane wrote a 10,000 word essay, Economic Growth. Scott Grannis blogged some excerpts here: a few of them: Our economy is like a garden, but the garden is choked with weeds. Rather than look for some great new…
Read MoreUniversity of Chicago economist John Cochrane has written one of the most unique and insightful perspectives on inequality in his blog, The Grumpy Economist. Read Why and how we care about inequality in its entirety. It is about 6 pages long. excerpts:…
Read MoreUniversity of Chicago economist John Cochrane has written one of the most unique and insightful perspectives on inequality in his blog, The Grumpy Economist. Read Why and how we care about inequality in its entirety. It is about 6 pages long. excerpts:…
Read MoreUniversity of Chicago economist John Cochrane has written one of the most unique and insightful perspectives on inequality in his blog, The Grumpy Economist. Read Why and how we care about inequality in its entirety. It is about 6 pages long. excerpts:…
Read MoreUniversity of Chicago economist John Cochrane has written one of the most unique and insightful perspectives on inequality in his blog, The Grumpy Economist. Read Why and how we care about inequality in its entirety. It is about 6 pages long. excerpts:…
Read MoreAs a blogger with a day job, I often find myself curating other posts- selecting and commenting. Over the years I have found a few writers that I frequently return to. My Favorite writers for 2014: 1. Kevin Williamson- National…
Read MoreUniversity of Chicago economist John Cochrane has written one of the most unique and insightful perspectives on inequality in his blog, The Grumpy Economist. Read Why and how we care about inequality in its entirety. It is about 6 pages long. excerpts:…
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