Intrade on Trial

Romney is gaining rapidly on the Gallup poll yet Intrade still has Obama with a better than 60% chance of winning.  What gives?  I do not recall ever seeing this big a discrepancy in prior elections. Intrade has been wrong, and it can be volatile, but its accuracy...

Intrade Was Wrong

I am often a fan of the predictive power of Intrade.  But recently it forecast that the Supreme Court would strike down the mandate on Obamacare with better than a 70% certainty. They were wrong.  While still a useful tool Intrade is certainly not infallible.  Intrade...