by Henry Oliner | Oct 18, 2012 | Uncategorized
Romney is gaining rapidly on the Gallup poll yet Intrade still has Obama with a better than 60% chance of winning. What gives? I do not recall ever seeing this big a discrepancy in prior elections. Intrade has been wrong, and it can be volatile, but its accuracy...
by Henry Oliner | Jun 28, 2012 | Uncategorized
I am often a fan of the predictive power of Intrade. But recently it forecast that the Supreme Court would strike down the mandate on Obamacare with better than a 70% certainty. They were wrong. While still a useful tool Intrade is certainly not infallible. Intrade...
by Henry Oliner | Oct 8, 2010 | Politics, Uncategorized
Intrade is now giving slight odds that the Republicans will take the Senate. (51.1) Intrade gives strong odds (75) that the Republicans will take the House.
