Covid Thoughts 2020 04 18

Human progress seems to come in waves of euphoria and depression, and each is in many ways a reaction to the other.  At our pinnacles we delude ourselves into thinking we have overcome our fragility; in the abyss we underestimate our inner strengths and resiliencies.  This is amplified by a media fueled by partisanship and outrage, and social media where everyone gets a big microphone unfiltered by professional standards, objectivity or reason.  (This is not to suggest that the professional media has universally adhered to respectable standards.) As Peggy Noonan observed in Patriotic Grace, we now read for confirmation, not information.

The decision to shelter in place and to place the economy on pause is a first for this country and was greeted with reluctance and skepticism, and eventually fear.  Based on projections we expected the mortality to be much higher than the flu, and we were told we were unprepared with enough supplies and thus we needed to flatten the curve; intentionally lengthening the duration of the outbreak in order to reduce peak loads on certain hospitals.

Shuttering large swaths of the economy is a huge unquantifiable cost we would only consider in such a dire health care scenario.  It appears that new information reflects a significant overestimation of the mortality.  When we referred to the mortality, we compared the number of deaths to the number of DIAGNOSED cases and compared that rate to the last flu which measures the number of deaths to the number of ESTIMATED cases, understanding that many who have the flu never see a doctor.  As new studies estimate the number of cases that are never diagnosed the mortality rate drops significantly – more in line with the seasonal flu.  How Many People Already Have COVID-19?  These studies are small samples and may be regionally biased, but the comparisons should at least be based on the same criteria.

Secondly the shortage of respirators also seems over estimated. From National Review, The Ventilator Shortage that Wasn’t:

Now New York appears to have passed the apex. Deaths, a lagging indicator, crested at 799 on April 9 and hit 606 on April 16, the lowest figure since April 6. Hospitalizations are also declining, and on April 16 also hit their lowest level since April 6. Cuomo today has so many ventilators he is giving them away: On April 15, he said he was sending 100 of them to Michigan and 50 to Maryland. On April 16, he announced he was sending 100 to New Jersey.

If we were better informed on mortality and supplies would we have decided to pause the economy with its huge costs?

We will never know how effective the shelter in place orders were, but they likely saved lives and the heightened hygiene being practiced would likely have saved lives with any flu and will continue to benefit for years to come.  Without a vaccine available and with treatments rushed through normal processes we still do not know how it will end.  There is still a case to make for quarantines for the most vulnerable, and new measures to consider for large crowds and public spaces.

We cannot undo the decision made but the new data should help us design an appropriate reopening strategy.  Better and faster testing would make us all more comfortable with steps back to normal.

In a Remnant Podcast (Episode 194) with Jonah Goldberg, guest James Pethokoukis suggested the importance of getting the back to work strategy correct; it would be insufferable to lead to a second surge in critical patients.  He recommended that panel be bipartisan, professional and different from teams handling other issues.



Israel is Not a Ghetto

Some perspectives on the Hillary/ Biden/ Obama smackdown of Israel for building Jewish homes in Jerusalem:

from The Jerusalem Post

Obama has Crossed the Line– by Isi Leibner

Excerpts:

The administration “condemns” us for building homes, not in densely Arab populated areas of Jerusalem but in Jewish suburbs like Gilo and most recently Ramat Shlomo which most of us regard as Israel no less than Tel Aviv.

Instead of condemning the brutal Palestinian murderer of an Israeli civilian in December, the US requested “clarification” after Israel apprehended the killers who the PA extolled as heroes. They failed to block a UN Security Council resolution criticizing Israeli police for protecting worshippers at the Temple Mount from Arabs hurling stones at them. They even condemned us for authorizing repairs on Jewish heritage sites over the Green Line.

In stark contrast, the US has not publicly reprimanded the PA on a single issue over the past twelve months. It is unconscionable that neither the White House nor the State Department conveyed a word of protest concerning the ongoing incitement and spate of ceremonies sanctifying the memory of the most degenerate suicide killers and mass murderers. Not even when our peace partners President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad personally partook in these ghoulish ceremonies. In fact, during Biden’s visit, the PA announced that they would postpone a ceremony to name a public square in Ramallah to honor Dalal Mughrabi, the female monster responsible for the abominable 1978 massacre in which 37 Israelis including 13 children were butchered. Nevertheless the ceremony took place and the PA TV interviewed Mughrabi’s sister who stated: “This is a day of glory and pride for the Palestinian people. We must unite, and our rifles must unite, against the enemy who steals our land.” The US failed to register a protest.

NETANYAHU HAS extended more concessions than any other Israeli leader. His government immediately agreed to negotiations with the Palestinians. In contrast, Abbas told The Washington Post that being confident that the US would ensure that the Palestinians obtained whatever they sought, he saw no benefit in negotiating with the Israelis. This scenario is now being realized.

from Amy Goldstein at American Thinker

The Subtext of the Obama- Israel Dispute

Excerpts:

Jews are particularly sensitive to attempts to limit their “natural growth” and the area in which they can live. President Obama continues to hit that nerve — whether it is intentional or not.

By trying to limit Jewish residency in Jerusalem, President Obama plays into this de-Judification of Jerusalem and poses a threat to both Judaism and Christianity.

Ramat Shlomo is located between the two sections of Jerusalem that were in Israeli hands when the 1948 ceasefire was signed. It is on the way to Mt. Scopus, which includes Hebrew University and Hadassah Hospital. Moreover, if the administration is declaring Ramat Shlomo to be “beyond the Pale” for Jewish settlement — as the Czar once declared Mother Russia off-limits to Jewish settlement and restricted Jews to the Pale of Settlement — then the administration is implying that all Jewish neighborhoods in that area are illegitimate (Ramat Eshkol, French Hill, and others that are integral parts of the city and where tens of thousands of people live). It also is implying that the Jewish people do not have the right to control their holy places in the Old City.



The Nail in Kennedy’s Coffin

The race in Massachusetts is stunning.  If Democrat Coakley is unable to beat Republican Brown in the bluest of blue states, then any Democrat is vulnerable. Just the fact that this race is close  should be a startling wakeup call to the Democratic party.

It appears that Brown is doing and saying all the right things and Coakley is doing just the opposite. If defeated the party will blame the candidate , and refuse to see it as a referendum on the current administration. Brown is running against Coakley on her statements, her policies, and her record. Brown is being attacked by invoking references to Bush and “tea baggers.”

Last Wednesday the odd at the trading site Intrade had the odds of a Coakley win at 85 to Brown 15, this morning it 53/47; a remarkable shift.

The Democrats have grossly misread their mandate and their hubris has dwarfed even that of the Bush administration. This mismanagement of their party’s victory should be laid squarely at the feet of their leaders, especially Pelosi and Reid. Their first constructive step to clawing their way back from the abyss should be to quickly replace both of them.  It is their hubris, partisanship and arrogance that are putting the nails in Kennedy’s coffin.



High Risk Births in Michigan and Uganda

May is a high risk month to have a baby in Michigan and Uganda.  Why?

Ramadan.

Some parts of Michigan and parts of Uganda have a large Muslim population that fasts during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan which runs from about August to September (It is based on a lunar calendar).  Muslim women who fast during that period put their fetuses at risk during the critical first trimester.

From “Superfreakonomics” by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner



How to Reduce AIDS by 60%

French researcher Bertran Auvert  discovered a way to dramatically reduce the risk of AIDS infection  in heterosexual males after trials in South Africa. The results were confirmed in studies in Kenya and Uganda.

For reasons not clearly understood circumcision reduced the rate of HIV infection 60%.

From “Superfreakonomics” by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner



Turning Tragedy into Catastrophe

A tragedy is what happens to somebody else. A catastrophe is what happens to everybody including us.

We have a health care problem that needs some new rules. For an individual family with serious illness bankrupted by medical bills it is a hardship and a tragedy.

But under the guise of “the system is broke” (for 85% of us it is not broke) and “we must do something” the government stands to turn tragedy into catastrophe. To improve the system for some they stand to make it worse for many.

The reason is simple. Government wishes to provide benefits without paying for them. In health care they simply dictate reimbursements and then shift the underpayment to the schmucks like us without the power of the government.

The government could simply subsidize health insurance for those who need it with vouchers, but then they would have to face the same market reality we all do. They would realize that much of the coverage mandated by ..ahem … the government has driven up their costs as well.

Choices will be made, whether by the market or by the government. Change is easy; choice is far more difficult.