The Great Migration from blue states to red states, largely New York and California to Texas and Florida is more than those escaping Covid restrictions. That may be the ‘final’ straw but that is added to high taxes, high crime, and failing schools. We tend to blame the last brick that caused the truck to collapse and ignore those others that preceded it.
I also do not think there is a threat that this migration will turn red states purple. Those most likely to leave these liberal states are the conservatives that have had more than they could tolerate. I think that red states will become redder and the blue states will become bluer. This may cause a greater drive for more state power that is not subject to the political whims of DC.
Identify politics was doomed from the start and we are about to watch it unwind. We will discover that people are more than their race or sexual identity. Zogby noted years ago the car in your driveway and the balance in your 401k was a more accurate predictor of your vote than your race or sex. The left’s obsession with race and identity does not reflect the conditions most voters face.
While Biden’s poll numbers are low that does not tell the whole story. Many Democrats and some independents may rate him low, but it does not naturally follow that they will vote Republican, especially if Trump is the nominee. There is a lot that can happen between now and November. Covid may subside and supply chain problems may be ameliorated in a few months.
Winning is about turnout and who the independents support. A weak Democratic ticket may suppress turnout, and rising crime and inflation are hard to overcome. Trump has alienated moderate Republicans but there is large part of the base that still supports him. There is nothing the Republicans can do to motivate Democrats more than to place Trump at the top of the ticket.
I think the down ticket support is becoming independent of the top of the ticket. I can visualize the Republicans holding both Houses in 2024 and still losing the White House. Again, a lot can happen between 2022 midterms and the 2024 race. In my opinion Trump is a liability for the Republicans, but the Democrats have to overcome core failures on crime, inflation, the border and its Covid response. The contempt displayed by Biden at his speech in GA on January 6 will be long remembered as much as the ‘deplorable’ comment haunted Hillary.
Contempt is the core value of the Woke movement and there will be a mighty reaction to it. Due to gerrymandering the woke or progressive members of Congress will likely be re-elected just as Marjorie Taylor Green will in her district. Both parties would be well served to marginalize their extreme elements, but as long as elections are close the party leadership is hesitant to alienate any group. It may take a landslide loss to jettison the wack jobs from Congress.
Perdue made a mistake in entering the race for governor of GA. He will find that the loyal Trumpers are a thinner constituency in 2022 that they were in 2020. Moderate Republicans who supported Perdue for Senate will be distanced by his fealty to Trump, and enabling Stacey Abrams. I predict Brian Kemp will win the nomination and the election. Stacey Abrams, unlike Trump, followed up her election loss with a voter outreach and she will be aided by the Trumpers who stubbornly sit out because their Trump anointed candidate did not win the nomination. Still I think she loses by more than her previous loss. This may be just wishful thinking, but I think down-ticket Democrats will suffer more than down-ticket Republicans.
I remain dismayed by the Trumpers and their contempt for Brian Kemp. When I ask what precisely they wanted him to do to help Trump in the 2020 election I usually get stupid glares. If they wanted the governor to use authority he does not have to overturn the results of the election will they be OK if Stacey Abrams gets elected and uses that same power?
A comment from a podcast (I can not remember if it was The Remnant or Mad Dogs and Englishmen). “Democrats govern like they will never be in the minority; Republicans govern like they will never be in the majority.” McConnell fought Trump on subverting the filibuster because he understood this. Democrats have not learned this lesson snd keep creating tools of power that end up getting used against them.