There are several headwinds to Democratic control:

  1. High crime in the major cities under decades of Democratic control.  This resonates beyond the local districts, making democrats look generally incompetent.
  2. Covid mandates.  Trust has so deteriorated that persuasion is difficult but mandates are counterproductive.
  3. School closures and demonization of parents. “Fuck the PTA” is not a winning slogan.
  4. CRT and ‘woke’ intolerance.  It is pure contempt and un-American,  Contempt is poison to a political campaign.  This obsession with race does not resonate with most voters’ experience.  Joe Biden’s Jim Crow 2.0 speech on Jan 6 was an embarrassment.
  5. Afghanistan- whatever your opinion on remaining there it is hard to argue it was handled well.  Many of the decisions such as the 911 deadline were clearly made for the sake of political theatre over military prudence.
  6. Inflation. The statement that Milton Friedman is not longer in charge is now making us wish he was.  Biden conflates political power with proven principles. Friedman was never in charge, his ideas were. Inflation is a tax on the working class, and politically corrosive.
  7. Demographics are not destiny.  Hispanics and Asians are no longer solid Democratic constituencies and Black support is eroding if at a slower pace. Note that in the Virginia race the Lt Governor Winsome Sears was the first Black in that office and Jason Mirayes is the first Hispanic DA in that state’s history and both are Republican.
  8. Their grab for power in suggesting court packing, elimination of the filibuster and federalizing elections clearly suggests they cannot be trusted with centralized power.

The Republicans have to content with Donald Trump and he is a liability in my opinion, but I do not think he will have the downstream liability of Biden who is weaker in the polls that he ever was.  It is not hard to conceive of Trump losing and the GOP still holding both houses of Congress in 2024 but that will not be a factor in 2022.

Dick Army once advised, “Don’t waste time killing someone who is committing suicide.”  That is a good strategy for the Republicans to follow in 2022.