This sentiment has been expressed to me several times and I believe it captures a group of voters than can influence the elections.
Public polls overwhelmingly favor the Democrats taking the House. I remain skeptical. It seems that this would require a bigger turnout of old Democratic constituencies that we may see. Trump has made inroads into the Midwest blue collar voters that put him in the White House. While they may face some burdens from his tariffs, they are not likely to switch back. The strong anti-Trump Resistance only reinforces their decision; the more they feel Trump is treated unfairly the more they will maintain if not increase their support. Marginal Trump voters are becoming committed Trump voters.
Trump’s policy on Israel will increase his support from Jewish voters. Ending the Iran deal, moving the embassy to Jerusalem, and ending funding for the PLO signal stronger support for Israel than we have seen since the nation’s founding. Jews are concentrated in Blue districts and it may not be enough to change those, but Jews vote at twice the average rate and should not be underestimated in other districts. The evangelical support for Israel is also strong, but most of these were already in the Republican camp.
Trump’s performance among black voters will improve. Black unemployment is the lowest in decades. This block will remain strongly Democrat but a shift from 90% Democrat to 80% Democrat could have an impact nationwide. This may not translate into Republican votes in House districts, but it may impact their turnout in those races.
The strongly motivated women on the left will turnout, but will the numbers be any greater than before? Will the behavior of the Democrats in the first two years of Trump’s presidency change votes in the middle third?
Will the clown fiesta of the Kavanaugh hearings hurt the Democrats in the midterms? It is hard to conceive it will have no impact and though it may excite the Democratic base it will also alienate the middle third.
Corey Booker’s “Spartacus” moment was pathetic. If a Senator did openly confess to releasing classified documents then he should be censured or prosecuted, not wear his lawlessness as a badge of honor. That the documents he claimed were classified were already declassified meant he was either a fool or a liar. Evidence indicates the latter. His campaign for president is over. He will never escape the “Spartacus” humiliation.
Kamala Harris was awarded four Pinocchio’s for doctoring Kavanagh’s statement to make him appear to equate birth control with abortion. She leveraged this blatantly fabricated lie into a massive fundraising campaign. This may satisfy her sycophants and party base, but it will not grow the base. It may even shrink it.
Diane Feinstein sat on the Christine Ford letter for two months, then sprung it at the last minute. This deserves a censure from the Senate, especially for a senior member of the Judiciary Committee. A long and distinguished career in the Senate will now be remembered for a corrupt stunt to please a Democratic party that has shifted so far left that Feinstein has become increasing irrelevant. Ms. Feinstein should remember that we are remembered by our last worst act.
The staged disruptions from the chamber during the hearings were complemented by the ‘ends justify the means’ tactics of these Senate leaders. Only the most extreme of the left find this appealing or justified. American embraced the #MeToo movement because they could picture their daughters, sisters and mothers as victims of the Weinsteins, Lauers, O’Rileys and others. The assault on Kavanaugh, where due process is ignored, and unsubstantiated accusations can derail a stellar career, is an attack on their sons, brothers and fathers. Ironically, the Democrats are destroying the #MeToo movement by abusing it for political gain.
This display will come back to haunt the Democrats as so much of their extreme behavior has in the past. They failed to learn the lesson from 2016: There are 3115 counties and 50 states (and D.C.). You cannot win by appealing to a narrow if rabid base.
The 2018 midterms are an important test. Was the humiliating loss of Hillary to Trump only because of her incompetence and corruption or is the party itself out of touch? The House races are the first opportunity to begin recovering from this loss. If the Democrats fail to take the House, it will be a far more devastating defeat than losing to Donald Trump.