A few thoughts on the great upset.
I was wrong. Consistently wrong throughout his whole campaign. I will not go back and delete all of my posts that assumed he would lose. I am OK with being wrong and was certainly not alone.
It remains to be seen if I was wrong about the dangers of his shortcomings. I certainly am OK with being wrong about those as well.
I am uncertain how much of his victory was the result of his appeal and how much it was the result of the lack of appeal of his reprehensible opponent. Or how much it was because he tapped into a very real undercurrent that made the silent majority of Richard Nixon look like a small private supper club.
This election was the Republicans’ to lose. With a more stable GOP candidate almost any Democrat would have lost. A few weeks ago I was cursing the Republicans for nominating the only guy who could possibly lose to HRC. It seems the Democrats nominated the only one who could lose to Trump, although their runner up would have lost by more. What a surprise the Democrats could have been so out of touch.
The Democrats had a very weak back bench to build from. This is the result of the GOP victories on the state and local levels.
The stock sell off is a buying opportunity.
If I had to find one word to describe the reason for the upset it would be the word ‘contempt’. When the economy tanked in 1929 voters thought Hoover was out of touch and voted him out, even though the decline was well underway before he took office. FDR was re-elected multiple times during a much longer period of decline, because the common man felt he connected. Recall his fire side chats. More on this in another post.
The upset is especially remarkable when you consider the loss of the conservative intellectuals, many establishment Republicans, and the strong bias against him from most large media, other than Fox News.
This is a replay of Brexit, a revolt against the elites. We understand that elites will be a part of a complex government and economy, but they can not afford to be so tone deaf and removed from the people who suffer the results of their policies. We need better elites.
The Pundits were wrong. The media polls were wrong. And the political consultant class was wrong. Such institutions are OK in normal times but miss such seismic shifts.
Progressivism prefers the pragmatic over the ideological. That is Trump. Yes he promises to cut taxes and regulations, but he has not rejected the power of the state.
I am glad to finally be done with the Clintons. Wikileaks told us nothings those of us outside of her bubble did not already know. Wikileaks just did the job a sycophant press refused to do. By protecting her they obscured the necessary vetting and caused great damage to her campaign and her party. Investigations on her perjury and misuse of the Foundation should continue, although I doubt the Foundation will continue independently since it now serves no political purpose.
I share many of the concerns of his opponents for his various shortcomings in policy. I am particularly concerned about his trade policies and lack of understanding of much of our foreign affairs. I hope this is mediated by his Congress and Cabinet.
I also hope the Democrats reflect on their loss and learn from it. See ‘contempt’ above. Character does count and this greatly hurt the Democrats from Hillary all the way to Weiner. I also hope the GOP learned from the mistakes of the Democrats and do not let their victory go to their heads the way the Democrats did when Obama was first elected and they controlled both houses.
How enthusiastic will the Democrats be about executive orders now that they are in the hands (normal sized hands) of Donald Trump. Intellectual consistency has never been their strong point.