During the circular firing squad that was the GOP primary, Obama’s Intrade Odds were over 70% to win. After the selection of Mitt Romney his odds dropped over time to as low as 53%. More recently Obama’s odds have increased to over 59% but today (8/13/12)  they have dropped to 56.6%, a significant move in a short time period.  I attribute this to the response from Paul Ryan as the VP pick.

Intrade is not infallible and the further away from the event the less it is dependable as an indicator.  I also expect to see the GOP gain some steam from the convention, and ultimately from the debate.  At this point in the Carter Reagan battle, Carter was substantially ahead of Reagan and ended up winning only 5 states.  The debates killed Carter.

Also showing Obama ahead in committed votes is Karl Rove’s site which is updated regularly. Rove points out that some of the toss up states have not had recent polling and this could also change.


8/17/12  55.8

8/22/12  57.3