The unemployment numbers show 290,000 new jobs yet the unemployment rate went up from 9.7 to 9.9%. How can this be?
800,000 new workers entered the workforce that were therefore not included in the unemployment numbers previously Some say this is normal at this stage in the recovery, but it also raises the question of not including them in previous quarters. Was unemployment actually much higher than was stated previously?
There is an alternative measure that includes part time workers and those discouraged and not seeking employment. This number also rose to 17.1% from 16.9%
The news is still an improvement but the administration is at honest to warn that jobs will be recovered much more slowly that they were lost.
I still generally hear businesses voice a reluctance to hire and invest, largely because of the uncertainties of so much new legislation. They will more likely respond to increased business with more hours for existing workers or temporary workers. Average hours worked has also increased.
For most business people this is still an Uncertain Recovery. Many economists claim that is a normal perception at this point in the recovery, but the uniquely drastic nature of the political intrusion into the economy make me think this recovery will be slower than usual.
We are seeing economically stimulative policies (low interest rates, money growth) counter politically destimulative policies (regulation, higher tax rates). This will restrain the recovery.