Obama won by a 7 point spread, a change of a little more than 3.5% would turn the vote against him. If a third of the votes were independent, and he got most of their support, the loss of those votes could easily make him a one term president.
It is the independents he cannot afford to lose and that is exactly the group he alienates the most with the attacks on Fox News and the US Chamber of Commerce.
Due to his extreme left of center policies he stands to galvanize Republican opposition is a way that few can imagine. Yet his commitment to the war in Afghanistan can cost him enough Democrat votes to at least reduce the voter turnout.
The Republicans seem to be in the midst of a revolution to control the soul of their party. The independents of the tea parties seem to be turning on the party leaders in states that betray their conservative vision.
If the Republicans can field a candidate that can play the conservative values of liberty without being dominated by the religious right Obama will be a one term president.