Obama’s campaign was blessed by the financial collapse only a few months before the election. When it struck, few of the voters could absorb or analyze the cause, and with a compliant press it was natural to blame the party in power, although few seemed to realize that for two years that party had been the Democrats.

This is not to take credit away from the Obama campaign’s ability to use modern technology far better than the opposition, their ability to exploit every opening handed to them, their ability to read the voters and to craft and communicate a message that stuck, and their ability to defuse a history of radical ties. And one should not slight the aura of competence Obama projected to a population who clearly felt it was lacking in the previous administration.

But given the recoil from an incredibly unpopular war, an uninspiring campaign from McCain, and most of all the disastrous credit collapse on the eve of the election, I am still struck by how close the election was. The spread was 7.2% of the popular vote;- 52.9 to 45.7%; more substantial than recent elections, but still modest considering the conditions. A change of only 3.5% of the voters would have changed the outcome.

It is not uncommon for a new president to see his poll numbers drop after inauguration and Obama is no exception. But given the radical reordering of our economy and society, I would expect a tremendous pushback and a hardening of the opposition. I think many independents and moderates who supported Obama, frustrated with the Bush Administration for any number of reasons, are having great remorse.

The Democrats seem galvanized at the moment because the Republicans seemed so fragmented and neutered. They seem to recycle old faces. Personally I think their savior has yet to arise. They need a leader with populist appeal AND enough intellectual heft to get beyond dogma, and understand the complexities of global policies and American politics. A successful leader must dominate the unaffiliated center.
We used to observe that candidates ran to the left or the right and governed to the center. This described Bill Clinton. But Obama got the independents to believe he was a centrist, yet has governed far to the left. Some blue dog democrats are already feeling the heat from their voters. The Democrats are pushing their toughest programs recklessly through now, hoping the economy will be in recovery and the changes will be forgotten during the 2010 Congressional elections.

Just as the Republicans got drunk with power when they took Congress under Clinton, the Democrats are abusing their majority power now and underestimating how fragile their majority is. Obama may be a formidable leader and may have the magic that people will support him even when they disagree with many of his policies. I do not believe that the Democrats in Congress have that advantage.

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