While the main polls still show a minor, but narrowing, lead by Obama Intrade still shows a very wide gap showing a 59% odds of Obama winning and 40% odds of McCain winning.
I am not sure how this squares with a near tie at Zogby and a 3% lead for Obama at Gallup and Rasmussen. Intrade shows the odds of winning without consideration of by how large a margin. This also may reflect the relative certainty of Obama’s lead in several states strong in electoral votes.
Intrade carries some weight because this is how people are betting- they are putting their money where their mouth is. In past elections Intrade has been a better predictor. It would take a considerable shift for these odds to reverse themselves.
While the narrowing spread in the polls renders excitement in the right wing blogosphere, I will feel more comfortable when I see it verified at Intrade.