Last week before I took my daughter to college at Indiana, Romney was the favored VP pick for McCain with 75% odds at Intrade. When I returned yesterday, Tim Pawlenty had risen to the likely pick with 75% odds.

At 10:00 AM this morning, an hour before the announcement Sarah Palin was the favored pick with 92% odds. She was not even on the list on Intrade the night before.

The McCain camp did an incredible job keeping the selection confidential. Unlike most, I knew a little about her, and I was very impressed. She is a great choice.

To my readers I confess that I was very wrong in my blind assumption of Intrade’s infallibility. I could not be more happy that I was wrong.

I am also happy that McCain has undone Intrade. I hope their presidential favorite also proves equally wrong.