I hear too many people (pundits on the left and right and politically astute opinionated consumers) swear that Obama’s election is inevitable.

Six months ago I heard that Hillary’s ‘coronation’ ……. I mean nomination and election was inevitable. Now the poor woman can’t catch a break.

Obama’s lead in SOME polls will grow during the Democratic nomination and decline during the Republican convention as they get more press coverage. Polls are pretty meaningless until 2 to 4 weeks before the election.

To win Obama will have to avoid losing Hillary’s supporters and many of them are currently polling for McCain if Obama wins. He will also need the Jewish vote in the big blue states which is still questionable given the Reverend Wright episode and other previous comments. There are still myths (negative) about Obama that stubbornly survive. Hispanic and other immigrant voters are very questionable. I do not see that the overwhelming black support and youth vote will be enough to counter the other voters.

There is a lot that can happen between now and the election. His sucess in the final election is no more inevitable than Hillary’s was 6 months ago.

HKO

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