In the Gallup and Rasmussen surveys Obama is ahead by 4 points on a national scale. This is a small lead with four months to go and the conventions and vp choices still in the future.
This is a small enough lead that this campaign could hinge on a single discovery or mistake. It is not the size of the spread but the fragility of the candidates that makes this an open race. It is wide open.
Personally I believe Obama is subject to the “final straw” vulnerability. Because he is still new, yet has made several bad choices, many are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt … to a point. But one mis statement or one more compromising realtionship and the house of cards will collapse.
Because Obama represents the openness and inclusion we value there are many who support him even if they disagree with him on critical issues. To some they just hate Bush and Republicans so bad that he is their only choice.
McCain will not beat him on experience or finesse; it will have to be on the issues. While there is much to admire about Obama I just can not find any issues on which I can agree with him .