Intrade odds that Obama is the Democratic nominee is at 75%- pertty strong. Given his delegate lead, Hillary is now toast.

Odds that he will win the presidency is at 60%. McCain is gaining slowly to 38%. This is less certain given the distance till the election and the numerous opportunities for change. McCain’s odds only a few months ago were around 10%.

My opinion. Obama’s explanation of his ties to Reverend Wright will placate the Democrats, but will still swift boat him among independents. Obama loses the general election 45/55, more or less depending on the VP candidates selected by either candidate.

Postscript- HKO
A day after I posted this the Zogby poll noted McCain favored over Obama and the Intrade spread tightened immediately from 60/40 for Obama to a statistical dead heat. Usually the party in the primary shows an advantage because of the political attention, so it is particularly unusual to see McCain in the lead.

This could be different because of the degree to which the Democratic rivals are trashing each other, another sign that the Democrats are seriously damaging themselves in the primary.

print