The new NIE, National Intelligence Estimate, reassures us Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, and has not been since 2003.

Was this a dividend from the Iraq War like Libya?

The history of our intelligence does not inspire confidence. They underestimated the nuclear capabilities of Iraq during the Kuwait invasion and overestimated it before the 2003 invasion. It was called a “a slam dunk.” Our intelligence was also surprised when Pakistan went nuclear, when Russia went nuclear, when Russia invaded Afghanistan, when Saddam invaded Kuwait and when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.

A NIE estimate in 1962 addressing the USSR putting missiles in Cuba said it would “be incompatible with Soviet practice to date and with Soviet policy as we see it.” 25 days later our U-2s were photographing missile sites in Cuba.

And of course 911 caught them completely off guard.

No one ever developed their nuclear arsenal in a public forum.
We need to understand the limits of our intelligence services, especially now.

Tips to Jeff Jacoby at the Boston Globe and Bret Stevens at Opinion Journal

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