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Archive of posts published in the tag: Nate Silver

The Bias of the Unthinkable

Pollster Nate Silver wrote a series of analysis on the polling and data pertaining the recent election.  The most recent is There Really Was A Liberal Media Bubble: I recently reread James Surowiecki’s book “The Wisdom of Crowds” which, despite

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Groupthink and the Wisdom of Crowds

Pollster Nate Silver wrote a series of analysis on the polling and data pertaining the recent election.  The most recent is There Really Was A Liberal Media Bubble: The share of total exposure8 for the top five news sources9 climbed from roughly 25

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Bigger Haystacks

What Data Can’t Do by David Brooks at The New York Times, 2/18/13 Excerpt: Data struggles with context. Human decisions are not discrete events. They are embedded in sequences and contexts. The human brain has evolved to account for this reality.

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Confidence in Complexity

First, Armstrong and Green contend that agreement among forecasters is not related to accuracy—and may reflect bias as much as anything else. “You don’t vote,” Armstrong told me. “That’s not the way science progresses.” Next, they say the complexity of

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