At an industry meeting last week at the Broadmoor in Colorado Springs, CO, the first speaker on Monday, May 2,  was General Stanley McChrystal.  Given the killing of Bin Laden the day before he changed his topic from one of leadership to speak about the special forces and the situation in the middle east.

He touched on two subjects that was probably new information to most of the people in the audience.  He explained the perspective that the Iranians have on the US by going back 50 years to our (alleged) overthrow of their democratically elected leader Mossadegh and supplanting him with the Shah who proved very unpopular.  We supported Iraq heavily in their long bloody war with Iran.  Read about Mossadegh here. (Rebelyid – October, 2007)

He offered an insight about Islamic radicals.  Many young devoted Islamists are trained to memorize the Koran in Arabic, a language many of them are not familiar with and are thus dependent on their Imam to ‘tell’ them what it means.  Many learn that jihad is war against infidels- the west.  Yet other Islamic scholars contend that ‘jihad’ is a personal struggle of redemption. As with any theology there is likely every shade of distinction between them.  The general’s point was that education is the key to turning the tide of Islamic radicalism.

Our modern military is educated with far more depth than field tactics.  They are deeply aware of the culture and history of the lands they engage.

Egyptian Youths take to the street

As we try to predict what the outcome will be in Egypt we tend to compare it to the last similar conflict, which many think is Iran. But the mistake in Iran began in 1953 when Mohammad Mosaddegh, a democratically elected popular ruler was overthrown largely by our CIA and replaced with the unpopular Shah. This action combined with the growing tide of Islamic fundamentalism led to the Shah’s overthrow by the Ayatollah. By the time the revolution happened there was not much Jimmy Carter could do about it, as pathetic as his efforts were.

Iran's Mohammed Mossadegh

The wave of unrest throughout the Arab Middle East is also a culmination of religious fundamentalism, poverty (in spite of the oil resources), widespread illiteracy, and a demographic explosion of young people.  In short it is a cultural development that is going in the opposite direction of western modernity, and the economic renaissance of the far east.  We have depended on autocrats to use authoritarian means to keep this backwards cultural shift under control and it cannot longer be contained.  Once again our president can do little to control it .

While many praise the rise of democracy in the Middle East, democracy is secondary to a more civilized and open society.  Our success is based on the true classically liberal values of individual and minority rights, freedom of religion, free speech, the rule of law, and an open society.  It was these values that gave rise to democracy, not the other way around.  Democracy without these values is just mob rule.

The French Revolution took place only a few years after the American Constitutional Convention.  While our new government was just embarking on their noble experiment they must have watched in shock as the French Revolution, originally embracing many of the same values as our delegates,  descended into the reign of terror.

The French Revolution

Our democracy has survived because of the rule of law and common culture that supports the values of an open society.  George Bush ignored warnings about pushing  for elections in Gaza, where the cultural values we associate with a functioning democracy were clearly absent.

Egypt will likely see a conflict between its secular population and its religious fundamentalists such as the Muslim Brotherhood.  With Mubarak out we can hope that the military will affect a stable transition, but we should fear a rise of another radical theocracy.  Egypt has enough national pride that they may resist being anyone’s puppet: ours or Iran’s.

The real power in the Middle East is not in the halls of government where we spend our efforts but in the Mosques where the values of the people have rendered politics almost irrelevant.  As much as we try to separate religion from government this puts our diplomacy at a distinct disadvantage.

This leads us to few good options, but acquiescing to values totally contrary to our own is certainly not one of them.  In the face of such open hostility we must remain committed to the true liberal values (not the bastardized version we face today)  that make democracy work and not fall prey to the democracy of mob rule.  While authoritarian control was not sustainable we should not assume that the people will settle for a religious theocracy either. The internet may be more influential than we realize.  The people in the street may be clear what they do not want, but at some point soon to come they will begin to clarify what kind of country they do want.

… according to Mideast expert Micah Halpern

Excerpt

This explosion was so powerful and out of control it was designed to kill, maim and damage in a wide circumference around the bomb. This was not the work of a Western intelligence force, it was not even the work of a Western assassin. Israel has perfected the art of destroying their target and their target only – a car and the people in the car, nothing else at all. Israel goes the extra mile to make sure the damage is restricted and does not injure people or property around the explosion site.

This explosion was the work of others, it was not the work of Israel and neither was it the work of the United States.

Find out who Micah believes is responsible here.

Americans are appalled at the idea of an organ donor market, where individuals can be compensated for donating their organs while they are alive. We fear that the rich will prey on the poor, and that people may even be bred for organ income.  We thus depend on altruism to provide us with the organs needed.

There are 80,000 people on an organ donor waitlist but only 16,000 transplants are performed.  50,000 people die every year that do not get the organs they need, and another 13,000 are removed from the list because they get too sick.

Yet there is a country that allows a form of a free market where citizens can be compensated for selling their organs. In that country the demand for transplantable kidneys is met. They seem to understand what altruism is and what it is not.

Which country is more humane? The one that allows 50,000 to die to enforce an altruistic principle or the one that seems to understand human nature, flaws and all, and thus gives individuals the right to market their own body parts, and thus saves thousands of lives?

I do not pretend to have the answer to this one, but it shows the difficulty of morality in public policy.

The country which allows the freely traded organ market is…….

Iran.

From ‘Superfreakonomics- Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance’ by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner

The local federation hosted Micah Halpern this evening at the Cox Theatre.  He is an authority on Iran and their nuclear effort.

A few random yet relevant points.

There are 3,000 FBI agents. None of them have passed the test to speak or understand Persian, the language of Iran.  Only a few dozen can speak Arabic. Translation is jobbed off to Israel.  We must job to a third party to translate the language of our biggest security threat.

The Iranians know us far far better than we know them. See above. They are much better at playing the international chess game than we are.

The Iranians have more Phd’s per capita that any country besides the US, Israel and maybe India.  Most are educated in European universities.

Natan Sharansky is a world class champion chess player, and keeps a continuous game with Kasperov.

Unlike Iraq in 1981 with a single nuclear plant above ground, Iran has at least 38 sites and many below ground.

Iran has a space program and has developed rockets to propel satellites into space. This same rocket technology can carry nuclear warheads and their satellites are critical to guide their rockets to assure accuracy. Their space program is not subject to inspection by the nuclear verification agencies.  Other components of their program sucha as triggers are also exempt.

We have no power over Iran. If we are to have any influence it must come though a third party, most likely China, which has a $100 billion dollar oil deal with them. Unfortunately we have been and are bungling our Chinese diplomatic realtionship.  We need a strong relationship with China to have any influence over Iran.

Iran’s diplomatic relationship with Venezuela is based totally on a common hatred of the U.S.

Iran will likely succeed in developing their nuclear weapons.

Read Micah  Halpern at The Micah Report . (now on recommended sites)