by Henry Oliner One of a few themes that I return to in this blog is the fascination with poor decisions from very intelligent people. It has led me from reading history to reading about the way we think and
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In Thinking, Fast and Slow author Daniel Kahneman wrote of a study conducted by psychologist Philip Tetlock at the University if Pennsylvania (my alma mater). Tetlock asked 284 people who made their living commenting or advising on political and economic
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Paul Slovic probably knows more about the peculiarities of human judgment of risk than any other individual. His work offers a picture of Mr. and Ms. Citizen that is far from flattering: guided by emotion rather than by reason, easily
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You can not help dealing with the limited information you have as if it were all there is to know. You build the best possible story from the information available to you, and if it is a good story, you
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One of the themes I seem to revisit most often is how the intelligent among us screw up so often. When a candidate is heavily promoted because of his or her intelligence above other characteristics, it makes me want to
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