hkoisrael

The two-party system oversimplifies the political landscape.  What we really have are two coalitions of interests and governing philosophies.

The Democrats include Progressives, socialists, Capitalists (Wall Street), social justice warriors, unionists, and populists. It is the home of the environmentalists, and pro-choice advocates.

The Republicans are the home of the Constitutional conservatives, Capitalists (Main Street), Libertarians, social conservatives, populists and religious fundamentalists. Prolife and second amendment advocates are more likely to find a home there.

These are general and there are many overlaps.  Those who call themselves independent straddle issues from both parties.

One can support social issues like gay marriage, but if one person weighs that lightly he may still vote Republican. For one who weighs that issue more he may tilt to the Democrats, even though the two voters agree on that issue. One may weigh that issue lightly because they do not see it threatened.  Once it is threatened it may change his political affiliation.  The same is true of gun rights.  After the Trump election gun company stocks plummeted even though the market soared. Without Hillary putting three judges on the Supreme Courts gun rights advocates were no longer threatened and a great motivator for buying guns disappeared.

The point is that issues that carried little weight in the election can become much more critical if the Republicans make radical changes to them.  The shift in power during the last decade should be sobering, and ignored at their own risk.

Both parties have populists, but they are different. The Democratic populists think free markets or big businesses are a threat, the Republican populists think big government or elitists are the threat. Both groups of populists reject ideology for pragmatism.

Big changes happen when one part of the coalition shifts.  In the Trump victory that shift was the unionist, the blue collar working class.  The significance of this shift is that it is not temporary.  The Republicans can screw it up, but once they stop assuming the Democrats are their only home, they may be reluctant to move back.

There has been steady and significant erosion in the Democrat’s power base since they lost the House in 2010.   Part of this is due to their victories in the past.  The advances in race and gender equality have reduced the appeal of those issue.  Efforts to keep those issues on the forefront fell flat. That does not mean racism does not remain, but it also does not mean that the progress can be ignored.  When everybody is a racist then nobody is.   Racism becomes the conversation stopper, a way to avoid discussion, the ultimate tool of contempt. Many voters who applaud the victories of the Civil Rights movement, are left alienated by BLM.

Modern women have grown so independent that many resent the idea that the government needs to take care of them.  Women are now half the accountants, lawyers and doctors. The character of the president is more important than their sex. Hillary’s sex had nothing to do with her loss.  Those who think the glass ceiling is an issue are stuck in a time warp.

It remains to be seen if Trump and his populist pragmatism is the reason for his victory or if the voters just rejected the Democrat’s deeply flawed candidate. Given the dominance of the color red on the electoral map this may just a furthering of the decay of the Democrats, but as close as the election was we cannot dismiss that a better candidate would have made a huge difference.

The shift in one segment of the coalition made a huge difference. How permanent this shift remains will depend on how the Republicans manage their victory.

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