Romney is gaining rapidly on the Gallup poll yet Intrade still has Obama with a better than 60% chance of winning.  What gives?  I do not recall ever seeing this big a discrepancy in prior elections.

Intrade has been wrong, and it can be volatile, but its accuracy over the last few elections has been better than most polls.

While partisans have accused the polls of being tainted, I doubt it. Gallup, Rasmussen, and the others have reputations to uphold; it is not in their best interest to publish inaccurate polls.  And those on the right who questioned the polls when Romney was behind, now seriously want to believe in them.

If Romney wins, Intrade is now worthless to me as prediction tool.  If Obama wins then Intrade has maintained a level of integrity superior to the polls.

If Intrade is wrong or swings violently to Romney’s favor, statisticians will be analyzing it for some time to come.  Intrade’s edge is that people bet money.  It is one thing to predict or believe, but quite another to put money at risk for that belief.  We are about to witness how fallible that edge is.

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